FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Eight or nine games? Why ESPN can influence debate over SEC football's conference schedule

MIRAMAR BEACH,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center Fla. — What would happen if an SEC spring meeting came and went without discussion about the number of conference football games? I couldn’t tell you, because I couldn’t tell you the last time that topic wasn’t discussed here. It’s tradition.

Commissioner Greg Sankey cautioned reporters on Monday evening to not expect much conversation this week about whether the SEC might expand from eight to nine conference games in 2026.

Ah, but as sure as the sun sets into the blue waters here each evening, the topic reared its head.

And the SEC newcomers didn't shy away from the conversation.

“I prefer a nine-game (conference) schedule,” Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte said.

That’s also what Oklahoma prefers.

“We love the competition,” athletic director Joe Castiglione said of the Sooners testing themselves against the almighty SEC.

The Big 12 defectors aren’t alone in their preference for an additional conference game.

So, what’s the holdup?

An adage comes to mind. I'll paraphrase: Money talks, and bull-poo walks.

How badly does Disney/ESPN, the SEC's media partner, want additional conference clashes on their platforms in place of a nonconference game that might involve an inferior opponent? Badly enough to sweeten the SEC’s pot?

"People tend to like when SEC teams play SEC teams," Florida athletics director Scott Stricklin said when asked about the great schedule debate.

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True, but with an extra conference game comes extra risk for an additional loss. I can imagine SEC athletic directors and university leaders thinking that risk ought to be worth something.

Oh, sure, no one said outright this week that money drives this scheduling decision, and in fact Sankey said multiple factors influence the conversation — including playoff and bowl access and learning more about how the playoff committee will weigh strength of schedule in an expanded playoff in which more than half the bids will be awarded via at-large selection.

“We have the CFP learning. We have the bowl access learning,” Sankey said. “Those are two important data points.”

Data points are great, but is Kentucky’s desire for bowl qualification really going to stand in the way of expanding the conference schedule?

If Mickey Mouse opened the checkbook, I believe SEC membership would approve going from eight to nine SEC games.

Schools are bracing for a future that will include sharing revenue with athletes. That new annual $20 million-plus expense likely is coming in 2025, and it has athletic department leaders evaluating their budgets and considering new revenue streams.

Sure sounds like a fine time to gain a financial sweetener to add a ninth conference game.

Several SEC schools have fewer than four non-conference games scheduled for 2026, showing they’re at least prepared for the possibility of a ninth conference game.

If ESPN had sweetened the SEC’s pot last year, the conference might be playing nine conference games this season. No deal emerged, and SEC membership voted to stay at eight for the 2024 and ’25 seasons.

“If you go to a nine-game schedule, you have to be compensated for going to a nine-game schedule,” Georgia president Jere Morehead said last year.

Maybe slow-playing the hand will pay off for the SEC in the long run, especially if ESPN/Disney considers what could be lost if the conference schedule doesn’t expand.

Is the SEC’s media partner willing to risk games like Texas vs. Texas A&M, Auburn vs. Georgia and Alabama vs. Tennessee not being played annually? Those rivalry games are scheduled for the next two seasons, but they’re at risk of falling off the docket if the SEC does not eventually go to nine conference games.

“We had a conversation with ESPN’s leadership a couple weeks ago just to re-engage with what that future may look like and help them understand if we decide to stay at eight what’s absent from the schedule,” Sankey said.

While the scheduling standoff continues, schools will search under rocks for new revenue streams.

And if Mickey should emerge from under one of those rocks holding a golden ticket, perhaps we finally will gain closure on the SEC spring meetings’ annual schedule debate.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.